Abstrack:
Climate change has become a global issue, it shows from the universally accepted result from the United Nations convention about climate change (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on the year 1992. The implication of climate change does not only affect the rising of the temperature, but also affects other climate parameters. This study focuses on the projection of rainfall as the climate parameter at Progo Hulu watershed, because rainfall has a big enough variability in terms of space and time. The rainfall projection in this study is executed as an early effort of disaster mitigation which is the implication of climate change at the Progo Hulu watershed. The method used for the climate change modeling in this study is the HadCM3 method. The emission scenario used in this study is the A2 and B2 emission scenario. The B2 scenario is considered to be the basic scenario which contains sustainable local environment handling and A2 scenario simulated that is indicated by the high increase of the growth of the population and low economic development. The rainfall projection yielded data from year 2011 until year 2100. The result from this study shows that in general, the rainfall projection using the A2 and B2 scenario has different characteristics on 10 rain stations at Progo Hulu watershed. On both of the scenarios, 8 out of 10 rain stations showed an increasing rainfall trend, while on the other 2 stations, which is Parakan and Kintelan showed a declining trend. The highest monthly rainfall rate occurs on year 2100 with the B2 scenario occurs on the Magelang station as big as 1173.38 mm that occurred on December, while for the A2 scenario is as big as 1923.8 mm that occurred on February.
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